What is happening? I believe all investors have the
obligation to know the current outlook for Malaysia market and take it
seriously. It is not as optimistic as you think.
Firstly, let’s have a look at Malaysia and the world major
index.
World Indices
Dow Jones had started to move at the opposite direction
since it breached 1,800 levels on 21st July. It had dropped 7 days
continuously! FTSE and Hang Seng index are also at the down trend. However,
they are not as worse as KLSE index.
Secondly, let’s look at the Currency chart. Malaysia Ringgit
(“MYR”) started to depreciate since a year ago and MYR is the worst currency in
South East Asia! Sooner, MYR might be a piece of paper, become valueless. FYI,
MYR and SGD are at the same level when Singapore was no longer a part of
Malaysia, but until today SGD1.00 dollar equivalent to MYR2.84!
Currency
From the chart above, we can clearly see that MYR is
creating new low and it seems like it will still go further down. As at 31st
July, USDMYR was still at the level of 3.82 but as at today it had dropped to 3.94!
It was only 10 days time! By using MYR as our principal currency, our net worth
is decreasing from day to day even though we done nothing! How are we going to
go for oversea vacation?
That’s the reason why there is getting more and more people
who going to work at oversea especially Singapore. Malaysia foreign currency
reserve was left only USD9.67 billion as at 31st July, the lowest
among the past 5 years! However, it is still not the worse yet. US very very likely will hike their interest by end of this year or the latest beginning of next year. Foreign fund will move back to US and subsequently affect Malaysia market. MYR will continue to depreciate to further low by that time.
Thirdly is
the world commodity price. Crude oil price had once again dropped to the
support level of USD43/barrel. Will it continue to drop further? I had no idea.
Commodity
As we can see from above, the commodity and metal price are
also dropping to a new low. Years ago, most of the people will buy gold to
hedge their wealth, but we need to accept the fact that Gold is no longer a
secure product today! It was a historical new low for Gold! The commodity price
was also dropping like nobody else.
Back to Malaysia, Fitch Rating mentioned that implementation
of GST and removal of subsidize of petrol price will increase government
earnings every year. This is two of the reasons why they revised our rating
from A- rating with negative outlook to stable. Implementation of GST might be
good for long term but I totally not agree with the removal of subsidize of
petrol price. Government always claimed
that our petrol price is much lower compare to other South East Asia countries.
However, we need to remember that Malaysia is one the major crude oil
extraction country in Asia and the country income is mainly depends on crude
oil, while other South East Asia countries are purchasing from other countries.
It is non-comparable!
Besides that, Malaysia national debt had already up to
MYR680+ billion. FYI, during our former 5th prime minister, Malaysia
national debt was only at around MYR350+ billion.
In Malaysia, there are too many negative issues surrounded
and we don’t even have a positive catalyst to boast our market up. Malaysia
politics and 1MDB issues are also one of the main factors. With all the inner
and outer facts above, I believe bear market is already not far from us. To be
honest, there might be another economy crisis. The truth is Malaysia economic
had started to slow down and moving backward. Do more research by yourself
rather than totally believe in those economists and investment bank words. They
are being too optimistic. Just my 2 cents opinion
Overall, as a Malaysian, I am truly sad and disappointed.
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